Belgium: is the end nearby?

If you want to visit Belgium, you must go soon. Belgium as a country may not make the end of 2009!

Two nations, the Flemings and the Walloons, are living together in the artificial state of Belgium. The country is organized in a somewhat federal manner, so that both nations can rule some aspects of their life alone. Important matters as social security and other aspects of the economic well being of the populations are still a federal matter. As are all taxes which are still collected by the Federal level. However, strict laws define how the money must be divided among the two nations and the capital, Brussels. International experts agree that Belgium has the most complex government structure in the world. A structure that is complicated by the way the Flemings (+60 % of the population) gave in the past veto power to the Walloons (30% of the population) on all Federal decisions.

The June 7th elections in the two parts of the country produced a far leftist majority in the Walloon, French speaking region, and a center-right majority in the Flemish, Dutch speaking part of the country. The negotiations to form the two governments are still going on, so everything is still possible. What makes the situation interesting is the inclusion of the N-VA party in the negotiations to form the Flemish government. This party wants the abolition of Belgium, and an independent Flanders within the structure of the European Community. The favored strategy is to starve Belgium. Indeed, Belgium is virtually broke. Belgium needs money from the two regions. The economic crisis produces high unemployment and it forced Belgium to spend billions of Euros to save a few banks. The complex structure of the State can only function by paying off the Walloons for every decision. The Flemings pay the Walloons every year over 10% of their yearly gross product. This is unsustainable.

Finally the Walloons are beginning to understand that the party may be over. Mr. Jules Gheude is a well known Walloon personality and writer. He advocates the joining of the Walloon region with France. Last Friday he published an open letter in the leading Belgian weekly ‘Le Vif/L’Express’ asking the Walloon politicians to prepare for the end of Belgium.

Who profits from the colonial structure of Belgium where one part profits from the other part almost since the inception of the country in 1830? Imagine a broke Belgium, where decision-making stopped, where Flanders declares it independence, and Wallonia begs France to take it in. The king of Belgium and his family will have to find employment somewhere else. Will he go in peace? More reactionary are the unions and other leftist organizations. You will not believe it but the unions in Belgium control two major money streams: unemployment and social health care. Belgium gives them the money to distribute it, and on top of that it pays them a huge amount of money to organize the distribution of the money. How that came to be true is another story. Just understand that the three unions (Socialist, Liberal, and Christian Socialist) each ‘own’ a political party.

Since two of the three parties, negotiating to form the Flemish government are such union controlled parties, my educated guess is that Belgium will be saved for a couple more years, because the Flemings will give in again and give money back to Belgium. This may destroy the N-VA party, if she goes along, which is the aim of the union parties. If the N-VA doesn’t give in, she will be replaced by the third union party, and become way stronger in the next election. Stay tuned.