China’s One Child Family Policy was introduced in 1978. It applies to all first-born children born in 1979 or later.

Previous attempts to lower the Chinese birth rate and reduce the rate of population growth began in the early 1970s, when the birth rate was over 5 births per woman. In 1980, the birth rate was 3 births per woman. Currently, the birth rate is approximately 1.8 births per woman, or 1.28 per person.

Exceptions

The birth rate is still higher than 1:1 because children born before the policy took effect are also counted. However, the restriction to a single child is also not absolute. Legal exceptions currently account for about 2/3 of China’s population.

Rural families may apply to have a second child if the first child is a girl. Families are also allowed to apply for a second child if the first is born disabled. Parents who both have no siblings may have a second child. Ethnic minorities are not subject to the one-child restriction.

Children born abroad to Chinese citizens do not count against the limit if the child does not obtain Chinese citizenship. Chinese citizens who return to China after traveling abroad may have a second child. The population of Macau and Hong Kong is completely exempt from the One Child policy.

Those who defy the policy and have a second child in secret are subject to a steep fine after the child is discovered, which is set as a multiple of earnings based on the child’s birth year. This social compensation is often higher than most rural families can afford. However, it may be appealed. It is common for appealed fines to be lowered to a manageable amount within the family’s means.

If the second child is discovered before birth, the parents will be under strong pressure to have an abortion. When the One Child Family Policy was first introduced, abortion was often mandatory.

At the beginning, most of China’s population was subject to the one-child policy. By the time Hong Kong and Macau were returned to China in 1997, a full generation of Chinese children had grown up under the policy. Although most of them are allowed a second child because they have no siblings, they often choose to have only a single child themselves for economic reasons. In this way, the resources which would otherwise have been divided among many children are concentrated towards a single child. At the same time, economist Barry Naughton has observed an overall increase in the individual Chinese savings rate.

The gender ratio in China

Boys are still preferred in China over girls, especially in rural areas. It is the traditional responsibility of the son to care for his parents in their old age. When girls marry, they leave their parents’ families and become part of their husbands’ families. For this reason, after the One Child Family Policy was introduced, many families tried to ensure that at least one of their children would be a boy.

As a result, China has among the highest male-to-female ratios in the world among the young. As a whole, China’s male-to-female ratio is 1.06 males to every female, just a little above average. However, among those under 15 years of age, the male-to-female ratio is 1.17 males to every female. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimates a birth sex rate of 1.19 males to every female.

Not all female children run the same risk. First-born children have an average male-to-female ratio, with daughters just as likely to survive as sons. However, female children who have an older sister are much more likely to be aborted or die in early childhood.

The high male-to-female gender ratio in China predates the One Child Family Policy. Female infanticide, neglect, and abandonment has been practiced in China for a long time. However, these methods are less common than they once were.

The introduction of prenatal ultrasound in the late 1980s has made it possible to know the gender of the child before birth. As a result, sex-selection abortion has become extremely common, even though it is illegal in China.

Another consequence of China’s gender gap is a growing number of unwed bachelors. A growing amount of gang violence aimed at wife kidnapping is one of the results.

However, the problem of unwed bachelors in China also predates the One Child Family Policy. It was first identified as a problem in the early 1990s, before the first generation born under the One Child Family Policy came of age. The problem won’t go away if the One Child Family Policy is lifted.

Child abandonment

Child abandonment, for children of both genders, is still a problem in China. The social fostering fee is deliberately set at a high level to discourage having illegal children. When normal birth control fails and abortion is rejected, many mothers give birth and then abandon their children. The exact numbers are unknown, but UNICEF estimates that hundreds of thousands of Chinese babies are abandoned each year.

Like most developed countries, China does not recognize informal adoptions. Abandoned children may only be adopted if the would-be parents have sufficient means. Parents who already have a birth child of their own are required to have an even higher level of income. Without an official adoption seal, an abandoned child cannot be schooled, cannot get a job, and cannot even be married.

The usual solution is to send the child to an orphanage, which will give the child an official status and enable him to participate in all parts of Chinese life. While some government orphans grow up in the orphanage, many government orphans are adopted overseas.

However, government-run orphanages have age cutoffs. Older children may be placed with a charity orphanage. Otherwise, they are forced to fend for themselves on the streets.

The 2010 census

The newest census results from China show that China’s population is still growing at a rate of 5.8%, the slowest rate ever measured. Children under 15 years of age now account for just 16.6% of China’s total population, compared with 22.9% in the 2000 census. Although China’s National Population and Family Planning Commission estimates a fertility rate of between 1.7 and 1.8 children per couple, the new census figures indicate that the fertility rate may be below 1.5 children per couple, roughly at the same level as Switzerland.

The new figures also show that the gender gap is still widening. In 2000, the census figures showed 116.9 boys per 100 girls. Now, there are 118.1 boys per 100 girls. This trend is likely to continue, along with all the problems it is likely to cause. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences reports that by 2020, as many as 24 million Chinese men are likely to find themselves without wives.

At the same time, the elderly population of China is rising. According to the 2010 census, 13.3% of China’s population is over 60 years of age, 2.9% more than than at the time of the previous census. The population pyramid for most developing countries has a wide base of youth and a narrow apex, while the population pyramid for mature, developed countries is close to vertical with very little age group variation. China is transitioning from the first to the second.

However, this means that there is a bulge in the middle of China’s population pyramid, which will have the same effects as the baby boom bulge did in North America. As the bulge moves upwards in age, just ahead of the One Child Family Policy generations, fewer children will have to support a growing percentage of seniors. This will be most difficult during the next 2 decades. After that, if policy remains constant, the pyramid will stabilize.