Australian GP Preview
A walk in the park…
By David Clifford
Round 2 of the FIA F1TM world championship takes us to Albert Park, Melbourne, Australia for the 15th time. At the inaugural event Michael Schumacher’s nemesis, Damon Hill, was the winner in his world championship year. 22 drivers started the race and only half the field finished. It is the race where Martin Brundle, now the lead F1 commentator on the BBC TV feed, in his Jordan, ended flying upside down at the first corner. Will this year’s race be so eventful?
Many will be hoping so following the Bahrain GP which singularly failed to deliver on the hype of the most eagerly anticipated season for years. Personally, I believe that we need to give the new format some time to settle in, perhaps until the European stage of the season begins. F1TM has made too many hasty decisions in the past to try to fix something and regretted it later.
Will re-fuelling be re-introduced this season? No.
Will two mandatory pit stops be introduced? Possibly, as a temporary measure.
Will we see Bernie dressed in blue and wearing feathers while performing a rain dance before every race? Hopefully! Certainly local boy, Mark Webber is hopeful “we know the weather here (in Melbourne) can be very changeable, so lots of things can change very quickly.”
The fundamental issue of course, remains the high dependency on aero performance and the reduced mechanical grip introduced this year with narrower front tyres. F1TM 2011 should see the aero situation largely addressed with the ban on double diffusers but what about the rest of this season and more acutely, the next race?
The number of finishers each season since the inaugural Melbourne race
Melbourne has typically been the first race of each season and would normally show any weaknesses in reliability. It is also a circuit that “enjoys” an average of 1.5 safety car appearances, I prefer the front half of the new Mercedes SL 63 AMG F1TM safety car! So, perhaps an incident packed race of attrition is in store which will help to spice up proceedings.
Sector times and circuit profile
At Melbourne the lap is split with average sector times as follows (Melbourne based on 2009 spec cars, Bahrain based on the fastest race times Webber/Alonso/Alonso); sector 1 – 28.2 seconds (31.3 Bahrain), sector 2 – 22.5 seconds (63.0 Bahrain) and sector 3 – 33.7 seconds (23.6 Bahrain) giving a total lap time of 84.4 seconds (117.9 Bahrain). It is the very long extended middle sector at Bahrain which has caused most debate regarding the circuit and the boring race. It resulted in many tight corners making over-taking very difficult and contributed to spacing out the 24 car grid. This was merely a contributing factor, the fundamental issue being that cars find it incredibly difficult to follow in the wake of another car.
The 5.303km Albert Park track is one of the few street circuits on the calendar and therefore used by everyday road traffic when Formula One isn’t in town. As a result, drivers are faced with minimal grip levels during the race weekend’s opening sessions, combined with the recent ban on traction control, the circuit’s limited run-off areas may claim some unprecedented victims over the weekend before grip levels improve as the cars lay rubber.
On track, Albert Park blends a testing mix of short straights (on which the drivers will reach speeds in excess of 300km/h and spend 70% of the lap at full throttle), interspersed with 16 slow and medium speed corners, which will demand nearly 3,500 gear changes during the race.
Torque to power the cars out of the corners, a balanced set-up, a robust gearbox and stability under braking are therefore all essential components to achieve a successful lap during qualifying and a strong result at the Australian Grand Prix.
In addition to the engine spark plug issues at Red Bull, the gearbox could be the achilles heel for this race. It was Webber’s car during Friday free practice at Bahrain that experienced difficulties, all of the cars are going to be under the reliability microscope this time out.
Pit time
There is less “pit loss” time at Melbourne when compared with the Bahrain GP, 17.9 seconds compared to 18.6 seconds. Although every tenth is important, the marginal difference is unlikely to influence additional pit stops.
So, on to my top teams/team mate predictions…
Mclaren? The profile of the Melbourne circuit will suit Jenson Button much more than Bahrain as it will allow him to get in to a rhythm. In the last four seasons he has been on pole position twice and won the race once. He will be more comfortable in the car. Lewis Hamilton has been on pole once and won the race in 2008. My prediction; Lewis to out qualify Jenson, Jenson to finish ahead of Lewis and perhaps on the podium.
Red Bull? Local knowledge and support will certainly spur Mark Webber on and bring him closer to the performance of Sebastian Vettel. A new stand has been named after Webber located between the Fangio and Senna stands just after turn 16 heading on to the pit straight. But for me I think Vettel will be even more pumped up this time out given his reliability issues at Bahrain. My prediction; Vettel to out qualify and out race Webber, one of them to retire due to technical issues.
Ferrari? It’s difficult to bet against them at the moment. The dominance of their package before the over heating issues was awe inspiring. The Red Bull clearly had an advantage in the early stages of the Bahrain race though. My prediction; Alonso to out qualify and out race Massa, Alonso to win and Massa to finish on the podium.
Mercedes? Nico Rosberg out qualifies and out performs the returning Michael Schumacher at Bahrain, I’m sure Keke had a rather large smile on his face as would Nico. When he signed up for Mercedes he didn’t expect Schumi to be his partner. He must have gone through many emotions between the announcement of his new partner and the start of the season. I am very pleased to see that given a good car he can perform. We’ll have to wait and see if he can maintain that over the season. My prediction; Schumacher to out qualify Rosberg, Rosberg to out race Schumacher.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Force India and Williams mix things up too in the top ten with Renault as a support act. One thing’s for sure, this won’t be another Bahrain GP…
What other factors do you think will influence the outcome of this race?
David Clifford
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